Friday, May 8, 2015

Pre Market Thoughts on ICLD and GEVO

1. GEVO:  In 6.91 pre mkt small (shit price right now).  5MM Float traded 41MM shares yesterday. The news was interesting in that it was a partnership with Alaska Air for Bio Fuel I think.  You can see on daily chart that above 6 the stock has room to its 11/14 high of $8.  So my long premise is to just look for setups/pullbacks in the stock today as long as stock shows relative strength above 6.  Has traded 1.3MM shares so far this am but honestly feels heavy at the moment.  I will add more toward 6 after the open but if I don't get a good solid bounce higher fairly quickly i'm cutting it for now.

8:51 Update just punched out 6.55 for small loss, felt very heavy so far.  Will watch now.

2. ICLD:  14MM float, no big short interest here though.  Volume not as good in this one pre mkt. PR on their cloud solution being used by auto parts distributor I believe.  In 3.80 pre and looking for 4.10.  Small position so far.  Unless I see bigger volume and/or stock can't regain 4 this becomes shortable and could look for yesterday's close 3.35.  

Thursday, May 7, 2015

Setups for May 8, 2015

1. AER:  Over 48.50

2. WUBA:  Over 79.50 or red/green

3. YOKU: Over 19.80 or red/green

4. ATVI: Long on pullback to 24.01-24.11 with .25 cents of risk

5. AIG:  Buy early p/b to 58.60-50.80 area w/ about .40 cents of risk

6. BLUE:  Buy early p/b to 148 w/ 2 points of risk

7. HUBS:  Buy 46.01 to 46.26 area with 1 point of risk

8. SUNE: Buy 27.40-27.60 area with about .50 cents of risk.  Red to green as well.

9. MCIG: Tons of volume today after best qtr. in history yesterday.  Buy .085 to .095 early or red/green.

10. FEYE:  Still weak will look for green/red and or weakness below 41 area.  Above 41 leave it alone.

On Obsession and Boogie Men

My son is 6, he doesn't want to leave our side lately.  Don't get me wrong, he's a fun kid who cares about 1 thing...entertaining himself.  But, at school they are teaching them what to do in the case of an emergency (i.e. school intruders/shooting).  That did it for him, he finally realized the world is dangerous.  

I grew up with my head under a desk with the specter of a Soviet Nuclear Missile landing in my living room.  He now fears armed men in black outfits breaking into his school.  My villain was far off, across oceans, on foreign soil.  His lurks around the corner, just outside the schoolyard.  

The cold war ended, the Soviets were a paper tiger of sorts.  We all got tired of MAD and our Super Power cock fight that went on for 45 years.  Gun ownership by household continues to decline in America.  My son's generation will accelerate that phenomena.  Heck, they are the ones being targeted and adults are having trouble doing much about it.  All generations tire of threats, real or perceived, and eventually take action.

Obsession is never a good thing, but it's what we do.  In the United States we obsess about love, sex, drugs, politics, accomplishment, and stocks.  Steve Martin once observed being obsessed with someone in a relationship, and how it was, in a way, very unhealthy to think about 1 person 24/7. But we all do it.  Like love, if you are obsessed with trading you will probably lose everything.

I walked past a rock this morning, and just kept walking.  But then I stopped, walked backwards, and picked up the rock.  I remembered my son's rock collection, and this one looked particularly interesting.  So here it is next to my oranges, on my wooden kitchen table.  The wood is real too, my wife designed the table and had it hand made in Indonesia.

I walked another half mile to my house, juggling the rock in my right hand.  I observed it, felt it, and wondered about it.  I thought, my God this feels better than a new Iphone.  It was like touching a naked woman after being alone on a deserted island for a year.  Life can be ascetic here in the land of milk and honey.  The Smart Phones are perfect, the lawns are perfect, and the houses are perfect.

That rock was nothing.  Imperfect, stranded, left alone on a busy road.  Yet it will outlast the lawns, the houses, and the Iphones.  Guarantee it.

Tuesday, May 5, 2015

The Presumption of Things

I'm about to buy GPRO at an average price of 48.73.  Factually speaking the daily 8 SMA is at 48.60 and S2 today is 48.82.  And now the guessing.  I am presuming that there are smart buyers in the world that pay attention to these things and dumb sellers in the world who don't.  That's life, right? C'est La Vie, may the best man win.  

But wait, how do I know I'm not the dummy?  After all I am taking these man made technical creations and applying them to my craft all the while assuming they work.  GPRO is in a confirmed downtrend in all time frames but the daily which is bullish (above 50 day, earnings gap).  So yes, there is a chance that I am the dummy.  However, if I get a little creative with things maybe I can be the dumb guy less than half the time.

So what else is up my sleeve?  Nothing fancy.  Earnings were good and confirmed by price action and volume that day.  Additionally, selling volume is diminishing on the daily chart in the last 4 days. Against my favor is a weakening market right now. That's it.  If I'm wrong I lose 2R, if I'm right I make 4R+.  We shall see.

Monday, May 4, 2015

Pre Market Thoughts and Playing Defense

Wow, Isn't AAPL tired?  I'm tired, and SPY must be tired after running up a hill for 2 days from just under 208 after its late Thursday afternoon death defying plunge.  Narrow range day?  I think so.  I'll call 210.50 important today, my line in the sand.  Below 210.50 is round #210 and then 60M 10/20 SMAs just underneath there.

On Friday AAPL retraced half of last week's 3 day plunge.  You know what that means?  $135 is likely, just not today.  I'll look for shorts up near 131 and longs from just under 129, as a narrow range day is likely for AAPL as well.

Walking yesterday I was thinking this game is all about defense, and playing defense is hard.   Defense is pro-active and takes more energy.  This is partly why we avoid it. The reality is that good defense is probably required 3 out of the 5 days in a trading week.  On the days when your winning, its easy because there is not much to do but sit there like a catcher and catch all your profits.  But hey, only having to work 3 days a week isn't such a bad thing.

All the best today.

Sunday, May 3, 2015

Ideas and Thoughts May 3, 2105

I'd like to pick 10 good names for early in the week.  I need names that have good movement/range and volume.

1. AGEN:  Inside bar on 10 day SMA after 2 day re-test of previous breakout area (6.50).  If 6.50 tested again it may indicate weakness.  Look for early strength above 6.85-7 area which could take us to 7.17-7.24 levels.  Red/green also possible here.

2.  TWX:  Needs to trade decisively above 86.17 which would indicate further accumulation in the stock after earnings.  I don't think this stock will trade clean through the 86.17 level so it's best to wait for a p/b setup on 15M time frame.  Can't chase this kind of a stock.

3.  PAY:  This could rake 36.40 one more time where you could try a long, anticipating a red/green move which I expect here.  Pay attention to 60M time frame.  36.40 longs could get trapped here so be aware of that.  Wholesale long would be right in front of 36 (36.10ish).  Need stock to decisively move higher past Friday's close of 36.71 to expect much higher Monday.

4.  TWTR:  Has nothing  but 36 in its mind.  Look to short any gap higher in this stock and/or green to red move.  Stay away from shorts above 39.  Remember stock wants 36, but if just gaps to there right at 9:30 I would need to be looking long.

5.  MA:  Simple one here, just looking for long setup above 91.35

6. SCTY:  Early longs around 60.38 (8 Day SMA) to 60.69 (60M 10/20 SMA) likely pay you with good risk/reward.  You can see the 2 early death shakes last week that got bought both times.  Up top You want this to move decisively above 62 because you have to get careful it doesn't get hung up there.  Just buy p/b above 62 because this is good pullback stock.

7. AMCN:   Could see early whip to 4.54 (60M swing low), but would expect it to be bought.  The volume on this stock is very good so will buy all I can at 4.03 (Daily 20 SMA).  Otherwise just need good volume here above 4.90 and stock should shoot to 5.23 (ATH).

8.  CYBR:  Back above 65.86 (8 day SMA).  Could long above 67 but needs volume if you want to try that.  Early whips to 65.19 (60M 10 SMA) area are good longs.  Be aware 65.19 longs could get trapped with homerun long right around the corner in front of 64 (round # in front of Friday low).

9.  AMBA:  Earnings not until June 1st.  This could rip higher early above 76.20.  Could buy small early or play red to green.  Otherwise just look for p/b after strong move above 76.20.  Don't want this below 73.42 (Daily 8 SMA), but early pullback to 74 worth longing with stops below Friday lows.

10. AT:  Hard to ignore this low $ name.  To me the only trade that makes sense here is a long above 3.26-3.31 area where you want to see big blocks being bought.

Friday, May 1, 2015

Ideas and Thoughts May 1, 2015

For the most part today, I'm planning on sitting on my stairs outside and staring at the new flowers. They are short-lived on this tree (Dogwood I think), so I want to enjoy them this year.  They left so quickly last year.

I was hoping for a gap down in AAPL, but looks like they will make it hard today.  Shorts off the table for me in AAPL, so I will look for a good long intra-day setup.  It may be worth taking a long at 126 area if we sell off from current 127ish area right away at open.  I have similar thoughts for SPY and I am already seeing the possibility of an all-day, slow squeeze in SPY to 210 and close there.

Some thoughts below on select names, I also posted charts last night on Twitter for MBT, SPWH, TWOU, and OXM.  I'll be watching those for strength and volume.  

1.  AGEN:  6.70 area is shortable, I don't think it's going to be able to hold this 10 day SMA.  6 is my sweet spot buy but I would like to see it get there fast and hard (shakeout), then I will buy.

2.  FEYE:  Does it rip to 44.89 area right off the open or does it get stuck and fall back below 43.50?  I'm leaning toward the latter, as pre market volume not very big.  In that scenario, wait for weakness to show itself, then look to short pullback off weakness.  If it just rips off the open toward 44.89 I will buy pullback.

3.  AMCN:  Coiling beautifully on daily with great volume pattern.  This stock trades nicely and very clean when volume behind it, you can just buy p/bs and/or flags.  $5 will be my trigger price.

4.  TWTR:  Still weak, players have already or are looking to buy this stuck but it acts like everyone has already bought it.  Early short in 39.40 area possible, conditions permitting.  Stock may see 38 today.

5.  PBPB:  I like this Doji resting on daily 10 SMA and around a round number of 15.  Also nice 2 day consolidation from 14.75 to 15 below which to place your stop.  Alternatively, be aware of fast whips below 14.75, then recovery back above 15.