Tuesday, May 5, 2015

The Presumption of Things

I'm about to buy GPRO at an average price of 48.73.  Factually speaking the daily 8 SMA is at 48.60 and S2 today is 48.82.  And now the guessing.  I am presuming that there are smart buyers in the world that pay attention to these things and dumb sellers in the world who don't.  That's life, right? C'est La Vie, may the best man win.  

But wait, how do I know I'm not the dummy?  After all I am taking these man made technical creations and applying them to my craft all the while assuming they work.  GPRO is in a confirmed downtrend in all time frames but the daily which is bullish (above 50 day, earnings gap).  So yes, there is a chance that I am the dummy.  However, if I get a little creative with things maybe I can be the dumb guy less than half the time.

So what else is up my sleeve?  Nothing fancy.  Earnings were good and confirmed by price action and volume that day.  Additionally, selling volume is diminishing on the daily chart in the last 4 days. Against my favor is a weakening market right now. That's it.  If I'm wrong I lose 2R, if I'm right I make 4R+.  We shall see.

Monday, May 4, 2015

Pre Market Thoughts and Playing Defense

Wow, Isn't AAPL tired?  I'm tired, and SPY must be tired after running up a hill for 2 days from just under 208 after its late Thursday afternoon death defying plunge.  Narrow range day?  I think so.  I'll call 210.50 important today, my line in the sand.  Below 210.50 is round #210 and then 60M 10/20 SMAs just underneath there.

On Friday AAPL retraced half of last week's 3 day plunge.  You know what that means?  $135 is likely, just not today.  I'll look for shorts up near 131 and longs from just under 129, as a narrow range day is likely for AAPL as well.

Walking yesterday I was thinking this game is all about defense, and playing defense is hard.   Defense is pro-active and takes more energy.  This is partly why we avoid it. The reality is that good defense is probably required 3 out of the 5 days in a trading week.  On the days when your winning, its easy because there is not much to do but sit there like a catcher and catch all your profits.  But hey, only having to work 3 days a week isn't such a bad thing.

All the best today.

Sunday, May 3, 2015

Ideas and Thoughts May 3, 2105

I'd like to pick 10 good names for early in the week.  I need names that have good movement/range and volume.

1. AGEN:  Inside bar on 10 day SMA after 2 day re-test of previous breakout area (6.50).  If 6.50 tested again it may indicate weakness.  Look for early strength above 6.85-7 area which could take us to 7.17-7.24 levels.  Red/green also possible here.

2.  TWX:  Needs to trade decisively above 86.17 which would indicate further accumulation in the stock after earnings.  I don't think this stock will trade clean through the 86.17 level so it's best to wait for a p/b setup on 15M time frame.  Can't chase this kind of a stock.

3.  PAY:  This could rake 36.40 one more time where you could try a long, anticipating a red/green move which I expect here.  Pay attention to 60M time frame.  36.40 longs could get trapped here so be aware of that.  Wholesale long would be right in front of 36 (36.10ish).  Need stock to decisively move higher past Friday's close of 36.71 to expect much higher Monday.

4.  TWTR:  Has nothing  but 36 in its mind.  Look to short any gap higher in this stock and/or green to red move.  Stay away from shorts above 39.  Remember stock wants 36, but if just gaps to there right at 9:30 I would need to be looking long.

5.  MA:  Simple one here, just looking for long setup above 91.35

6. SCTY:  Early longs around 60.38 (8 Day SMA) to 60.69 (60M 10/20 SMA) likely pay you with good risk/reward.  You can see the 2 early death shakes last week that got bought both times.  Up top You want this to move decisively above 62 because you have to get careful it doesn't get hung up there.  Just buy p/b above 62 because this is good pullback stock.

7. AMCN:   Could see early whip to 4.54 (60M swing low), but would expect it to be bought.  The volume on this stock is very good so will buy all I can at 4.03 (Daily 20 SMA).  Otherwise just need good volume here above 4.90 and stock should shoot to 5.23 (ATH).

8.  CYBR:  Back above 65.86 (8 day SMA).  Could long above 67 but needs volume if you want to try that.  Early whips to 65.19 (60M 10 SMA) area are good longs.  Be aware 65.19 longs could get trapped with homerun long right around the corner in front of 64 (round # in front of Friday low).

9.  AMBA:  Earnings not until June 1st.  This could rip higher early above 76.20.  Could buy small early or play red to green.  Otherwise just look for p/b after strong move above 76.20.  Don't want this below 73.42 (Daily 8 SMA), but early pullback to 74 worth longing with stops below Friday lows.

10. AT:  Hard to ignore this low $ name.  To me the only trade that makes sense here is a long above 3.26-3.31 area where you want to see big blocks being bought.

Friday, May 1, 2015

Ideas and Thoughts May 1, 2015

For the most part today, I'm planning on sitting on my stairs outside and staring at the new flowers. They are short-lived on this tree (Dogwood I think), so I want to enjoy them this year.  They left so quickly last year.

I was hoping for a gap down in AAPL, but looks like they will make it hard today.  Shorts off the table for me in AAPL, so I will look for a good long intra-day setup.  It may be worth taking a long at 126 area if we sell off from current 127ish area right away at open.  I have similar thoughts for SPY and I am already seeing the possibility of an all-day, slow squeeze in SPY to 210 and close there.

Some thoughts below on select names, I also posted charts last night on Twitter for MBT, SPWH, TWOU, and OXM.  I'll be watching those for strength and volume.  

1.  AGEN:  6.70 area is shortable, I don't think it's going to be able to hold this 10 day SMA.  6 is my sweet spot buy but I would like to see it get there fast and hard (shakeout), then I will buy.

2.  FEYE:  Does it rip to 44.89 area right off the open or does it get stuck and fall back below 43.50?  I'm leaning toward the latter, as pre market volume not very big.  In that scenario, wait for weakness to show itself, then look to short pullback off weakness.  If it just rips off the open toward 44.89 I will buy pullback.

3.  AMCN:  Coiling beautifully on daily with great volume pattern.  This stock trades nicely and very clean when volume behind it, you can just buy p/bs and/or flags.  $5 will be my trigger price.

4.  TWTR:  Still weak, players have already or are looking to buy this stuck but it acts like everyone has already bought it.  Early short in 39.40 area possible, conditions permitting.  Stock may see 38 today.

5.  PBPB:  I like this Doji resting on daily 10 SMA and around a round number of 15.  Also nice 2 day consolidation from 14.75 to 15 below which to place your stop.  Alternatively, be aware of fast whips below 14.75, then recovery back above 15.


Wednesday, April 29, 2015

The Anti-Fed

This shit is about to blow.  The market is gaining category 5 strength potential as it swims back and forth inside this $200 to $211ish range that dates back to early November, 2014.  Pinch me, it can't be.  And all this tweeting and commentary (I'm guilty) about, "oh, wow the shorts are really taking a beating here.  The shorts will go home hungry again...blah blah."  Are there even people who are short anymore?  Just stare at 5 months of a SPY daily chart and in the last 3 months it almost looks like there are only 3 red candles.  Nobody's short, all that matters is that the Fed is long.

If you're a technician and short, you should make an appointment with your Optometrist.  If you are a fundamental cat and short, I hope you have the patience of God and the capital of Goldman. The bull vs. bear dialogue is absurd, with an almost Flat Earth quality to it.  Bears speak with more "certainty" than bulls which is bullish.  Bulls are shy, subtle, and making money.  Bears are certain of the end, loud, impatient, and move from story to story faster than a Chicago politician.

Someone should create an Anti-Fed, sort of like antimatter, an opposing force.  Everytime the Fed printed, the Anti-fed would drain everyone's bank account by $20.  If the Fed buys bonds, the Anti-Fed would sell the hell out of them.  When the Fed buys stocks, the anti-Fed's liquidation Algos commence. We all talk shit about the Fed, but at the same time we're all on the same tit.  The Anti-Fed would be an NGO based in Geneva, Switzerland and I would be the head trader with 3 of the best computer hackers in the world working for me.

It's A Wrap April 29th, 2015

Fed days are a symbol of everything that's wrong.  The fed has made a monstrous leap from lender of last resort, to bull market pumper.  I don't give a shit it general, because you gotta' trade the market your given.  But, I make exceptions on Fed day because the price action is so annoying.  Nonetheless, I stay away for the most part because I have found Fed days not only difficult to trade, but they also have been my largest loss days in the past.

Look at the 15M SPY chart below.  Would you rather trade April 22-24 or April 27-29?  I'd choose the former because there was a trend.  There is no short-term trend right now, beyond 5 minutes anyway.

I did a few small trades for +.36R.

1.  EOG:  Went red/green from my watch.  Volume was too light, but I managed the trade very well.  Bought red/green pullback to 98.41 and when I saw no bounce i tightened my stop all the way to 98.29 just below the pivot point.    Well sized and managed   -.23R

2.  GPRO:   Went in small on heart attack break below 53 and paid 53.67 avg.  got some off 53 but that was it as stock ripped right back lower to my cost.  Good trade.  +.26R

3.  AGEN:  Figured after such a big down day yesterday this stock would bounce.  Got the early push down I wanted and bought 6.76 but was not aggressive enough on size.  Sold some 7.05, 7.18, and just have runner left.  +.33R

Ideas and Thoughts April 29, 2015

In trading, everything should be pursued with precision and thought.  There's a cunning scoundrel behind every time frame, and to beat them you need smarts.  I'm not talking Einstein smarts, I'm talking John Gotti smarts.  You gotta' be a scholar, a thug, a wolf, and a fox in this game because the gate keepers are all four of those things and more.

Tuesday was weird for me, as I was having a  emotional reaction to the Baltimore riots because I have friends there.  More specifically, black friends.  I didn't sleep well Monday night.  When the market ripped higher yesterday I didn't understand it.  If you don't understand what the market is doing, you need to go take a walk.  My "misunderstanding" was my emotional connection to the events.  I know in reality, the events in Baltimore are a non-event for the market.

This is SHIT action, on a Fed day no less.  Participate selectively.  I like these 2 cats hugging, I wish black and white people knew how to do this.